NBA Fantasy - Auction Keeper League - PREDICTIONS

All 3 BBS writers already described the auction draft and each of our teams, so check that out for league info and rules. I was looking for a way to project how good (or bad) each team will actually be this year.

I'm starting with these ESPN rankings of the top 175 fantasy players.


I wanted to see where each my of players fall on that list, and how that stacks up to the rest of the league.

First thing I noticed from the ESPN list is that I have 2 guys in the top 10 (KD, 5; Amare, 9) and 3 in the top 20 (J. Johnson, 18). Seems like I was off to a good start because had this been a draft rather than auction, I would have only had 2 picks in the top 18 (9 person fantasy league).

The problem is that I have a pretty significant drop off after that. My next best players (both projected starters for me) show up in the mid-40s (Westbrook, 43; LmA, 46). My utility spot will either be a big man (Emeka, 60) or PG (Chalmers, 94) if Westbrook is not getting enough assists.


My team finishes out with a Bull (Salmons, 69), a second-year player that is out 6-8 weeks (K. Love, 121) and a rookie (Flynn, 139). Not sure how that will play out, but I expect Love's stats to jump in year 2 (when he returns). I also expect Flynn to be competitive with Blake Griffin for ROY, which would be a great rookie season. Basically taking a flyer out on those two, now I have to wait and see if it pans out.

Doing this made me realize that my team is pretty top-heavy. I would rather have a more well-balanced roster because one injury could cripple me, but there's something to be said for getting top-tier players. There is a big drop from the elite NBA players to the mid-level guys. Once you get out of that top group, there is some variance, but everyone is pretty much the same. You can fill out the stats with 2-3 random guys who do one or two things well.

I was curious how my team stacked up, and whether the other teams in the league were top-heavy or balanced. So here's a look at the the league based on the ESPN rank of the projected starters. I will lay out each team (add up the total - so lower numbers are better), give a quick analysis of strengths and weaknesses, then project where each team will finish (9 team league, so I will project 1-3, 4-6, 7-9).

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My team - Sum of 6 starters' ranks: 191 (Rank: 3/9)

Westbrook 43
Joe Johnson 18
Kevin Durant 5
Aldridge 46
Amare 9
Okafor 60


Read the analysis above. Realistically, I see my team somewhere in the middle of the standings because I lack a premier PG, but how could I not pick my own team to win the league?? Projected finish: 1

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Derek - Sum of 6 starters' ranks: 199 (Rank: 5/9)

Dwight Howard 11
Devin Harris 27
O.J. Mayo 54
Tim Duncan 20
Ron Artest 71
Andre Iguodala 16

Very good team at every position - having 3 players in the top 20, but none in the top 10. Definitely not winning FT% with Howard and TD on the roster, but they fill up the other big-man stats. Harris should see his numbers jump as a he takes a bigger role with Vince gone. Would expect a similar jump from OJ, but who knows where minutes/shots will come from in the Grizzlies' backcourt. Projected finish: 4-6.

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Gasser - Sum of 6 starters' ranks: 231 (Rank: 9/9)

Nene 41
Kobe Bryant 4
Tony Parker 64
Carmelo Anthony 19
Gerald Wallace 23
Al Harrington 80

Nothing to love about this team, but sneaky good. Only 2 players in the top 20, but it's a legit 2 players - unless Kobe's age/games finally catch up with him. Plus, Gerald Wallace is possibly the most unheralded top 25 guy. With that top 3, should have no problem filling up the scoring, FT%, 3s. Not sure where the big stats (blocks, rebounds) with Nene and Big Al. Looks like a back-of-the-middle-of-the-pack team. Projected finish: 7-9.

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Kmart - Sum of 6 starters' ranks: 179 (Rank: 2/9)

Brook Lopez 30
Dwyane Wade 3
Chauncey Billups 17
Vince Carter 26
Al Horford 72
Kevin Martin 31

Looks like a good team with a top 3 player and another in the top 20. Feels like there are a lot of questions: Will D-Wade stay healthy or was last season a fluke? Will Lopez jump in year 2? Is Chauncey finally going to start slipping? Will Vince flourish finally playing on a good team? If everything goes right, this is a legit team, but I'm not convinced that all of the "ifs" work out positively. Projected finish: 4-6.


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PC - Sum of 6 starters' ranks: 193 (Rank: 4/9)

Mehmet Okur 51
Steve Nash 15
Gilbert Arenas 44
LeBron James 2
Kevin Garnett 24
Rudy Gay 57

This is a very solid team, but not built on a very solid foundation. Two players in the top 20, including #2 overall, and potential for two others with Arenas and Garnett. Really dependent on some bad knees (Arenas, Garnett) and an old PG (Nash). It would be impossible not to be in the mix with LeBron, who could potentially win the league by himself. Projected finish: 1-3.

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Sacks - Sum of 6 starters' ranks: 214 (Rank: 8/9)

Andrea Bargnani 61
Deron Williams 8
Eric Gordon 68
Danny Granger 6
Josh Smith 22
Marcus Camby 49

Overspent on Granger, but ended up with 2 players in the top 10. Those 2 with Josh Smith make for a very good core, but the role players look pretty weak. If Eric Gordon makes the leap in year 2 this team could be better than anticipated. Projected finish: 7-9.

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DC - Sum of 6 starters' ranks: 208 (Rank: 6/9)

Chris Bosh 10
Chris Paul 1
Monta Ellis 39
Hedo Turkoglu 45
Carlos Boozer 38
Andrew Bynum 75

Great start both big and small with Chris and Chris, both in the top 10. I see Hedo having a major decline in Toronto. Depending on potentially-splitting-minutes-with-Milsap Boozer and an always-potentially-out-for-the-season Bynum for big stats might be risky. Projected finish: 4-6.

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Big Fil - Sum of 6 starters' ranks: 143 (Rank: 1/9)

Al Jefferson 13
Jason Kidd 21
Brandon Roy 14
Paul Pierce 25
Caron Butler 36
Troy Murphy 34

Quietly put together a good team that will be absolutely no fun to cheer for (other than B-Roy). No top 10 players, but no one ranked below 36 (this is the balanced approach to contrast with my top-heavy team). Could struggle to get the big stats (blocks, rebounds) with only Big Al working down low, but a better fantasy than real-life team. Projected finish: 1-3.

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Catron - Sum of 6 starters' ranks: 210 (Rank: 7/9)

David Lee 37
Jose Calderon 29
Michael Redd 58
Dirk Nowitzki 7
Pau Gasol 12
Jason Terry 67

Love D. Lee in real-life and Pau in fantasy, but not much else. Dirk is a legit fantasy player who will carry this team, and Calderon should rack up some assists. Other than Lee, this team seems to lack anyone to fill up the big stats. No real weaknesses shooting, so this team could kill in the 3 % categories. Obviously the best odds we have for a white-wash in the entire league. Projected finish: 7-9.

NBA Fantasy - Auction Keeper League

All 3 BBS writers got into the same Fantasy NBA league, so our lucky readers will be getting random updates throughout the season.

To give you some background: It is an auction league with a $60 salary cap. Each owner could spend up to $65, but then had to pay a luxury tax penalty ($1 for each dollar spent over $60 – so if you spent $63, you had to pay $66). There are 9 owners, and each team had to leave the draft with 10 players. We start G, G, F, F, C and Utility, with 4 bench spots. We can keep 2 players next season with an escalating price (so cheap players add $1, expensive adds up to $4 depending on how much you paid for the player being kept).

As a side note, if you’ve never done a live-auction draft before, you should do it. This was my first time (and the first time for all of us in the league) and it was awesome. Way more fun and exciting than a standard fantasy draft.

With that said, here’s a breakdown of how each of us constructed our teams ...


2J - Team name: "Riding KD's MVP" (based on my NBA Predictions)

My goal heading into the draft was to land Kevin Durant and Joe Johnson, and I hoped to do it for less than $40, leaving me with $25 to fill out the rest of my team. A later-round guy I really wanted was Kevin Love, who I hoped would fill up the rebounding category for me.

I got KD early on for $23, and even before Joe Johnson came up for auction I spent $14 on Amare. I wasn’t 100% in love with him, but that seemed like a great price. Thought it was a good value at the time, and then realized he is eligible at the center position, so I love that pickup even more now. I then managed to grab Joe Johnson for only $10. So I was $47 deep and had a solid 3 players to build around.

I decided to wait a bit until the values starting dropping because I only had $18 left for my final 7 roster spots. I grabbed Emeka Okafor on the cheap ($3) because if CP3 can turn Tyson Chandler into a borderline all-star, he should be able to cause Okafor’s offensive stats to jump.

I also grabbed LaMarcus Aldridge ($2) and Kevin Love ($3), so I am pretty deep at PF and C. I then grabbed John Salmons ($2) (of course I needed Bull on my team), who can play both G/F, like KD and Joe Johnson.

My weakest position is PG, so I will be hurting for assists. I got Russell Westbrook ($3) as my primary PG, and went with Jonny Flynn ($2) as my backup. I am hoping other players like Joe Johnson can get me assists from my other positions.

I used my last “pick” on Danilo Gallinari ($2) – so we’ll see how that works out. D’Antoni loves him and supposedly he has been shooting lights out, so it could be a good value for $2 at the end of the draft.

(UPDATE: With K-Love breaking his finger the other night, I could not afford to have him and Danilo taking up roster spots. I was forced to drop Danilo, and since I am stacked at the F spot, I picked up an extra PG – Mario Chalmer’s – great for steals and 3s, and I’m hoping his dimes jump in his second season.)

I ended up spending $64 on my roster, so I had to pay $68 because of the luxury tax. I am very F/C heavy, and weak in the PG stats, but I love very player on my team and I’m really excited to see what happens.

Projected lineup after the draft:

G – Westbrook
G – Joe Johnson
F – Kevin Durant
F – Aldridge
C – Amare
U – Kevin Love

B – Okafor
B – Salmons
B – Jonny Flynn
B – Danilo Gallinari


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Kmart - Team name: “Gators Wade-ing in the Velvet Sea” (What… you don’t like Phish? Then stop reading.)

Unlike Jim I had no “goal” heading into this draft. I really didn’t know what I was doing. Not only have I never done an auction draft before, but I’ve never even played Fantasy Basketball. There’s never been a reason really. I follow basketball much more than the average casual fan, and I feel that I know enough about basketball to seemingly decide who is “good” and who is “not good”.

Either way being invited to play in this league I decided to give it a go. (Not sure why I waited to pop my fantasy bball cherry in a $60 keeper league, but what the hell?) I felt nervous and unprepared for the draft, but once it started I quickly got into the flow.

My thought process was to find value across the board, pick players I enjoy watching, and don’t overspend or fall in love with any one pick. There were no real players that I “wanted”, only players I know I didn’t want (LeBaby James, the entire C’s roster, etc. etc.) Once DC took CP3 at $26 the market was set.

I knew I needed a top 7-8 player in the NBA in order to be somewhat relevant. The drop off from the Super-stars to stars is much greater than from stars to productive players. After very little resistance, I wound up getting Dewayne Wade at $21.

After that, I was kind of along for the ride. I didn’t want to spend too much money early and be out for the remainder of the draft. I was able to jump in again about 10-12 picks later and snag Chauncy Billups for $10. A few picks later, I grabbed Kevin Martin of the Kings for $8. Perhaps I over-paid a little here, but I couldn’t in my right mind stand for letting someone else get Kmart, at least not in the inaugural year of the draft.

After the first 40 picks, with three players and $21 left I was the money leader in the clubhouse. This meant that if I spent wisely I would likely be able to control the back end of the draft.

With three guards in my first three picks I shifted my focus to picking up the best center available and then picking up my starting forwards. I eyed Brook Lopez and nabbed him for $6. A few picks later I got Vinsanity for $5.

With $10 left under the salary cap for my last 5 picks and another $5 in potential luxury tax, I figured I could be able to outbid anyone for the remainder of players I truly wanted. I eyed two Florida Gators in Al Horford and Joakim Noah. This is ironic because I absolutely hated both those Florida national championship teams. I’ve always admired Horford’s game though, and he was the most physical PF left on the board – and safest bet to be a solid contributor this year so I picked him up for $X. Noah on the other hand has secretly become my second favorite player on the Bulls after I absolutely despised him up until and through draft night. I’m not sure exactly when it happened, but sometime around the Amare trade rumors last year I fell in love with him. I figure at worst this year he’ll be a productive backup C. At best he’s a double-double machine who shoots well from the free-throw stripe and hustles for a block per game. Not a bad pick for $2

After that I had one more player on my board I was hoping to land – Blake Griffin. This is a keeper league so I figured even if he sits on my bench all year; he would be a potential pick that I could likely hold onto for the next two seasons. Needing three more players I nominated Jeff Green and was able to get him for $1. This left me with $7 to spend on Griffin and $1 on my last roster spot – he cost me $6. I rounded out my roster with Trevor Ariza at a buck for a total of $64.

Since I’ve never played fantasy basketball, I have no real idea if my team is good, great, average, or terrible – but I like who I have and I think as long as D-Wade stays healthy I’ll be right in the thick of it at the end. What do you think? Feel free to tell me how great I am, or how much I suck in the comments. (Just remember to click the title of this post, and then login and post your comment in the top box. ALSO – Copy and paste your comment as sometimes it glitches)



Kmart’s projected lineup after the draft:

G – D. Wade
G – C. Billups
F – V. Carter
F – A. Horford
C – B. Lopez
U – K. Martin

B – J. Noah
B – B. Griffin
B – J. Green
B – T. Ariza


DC – Team name (for now, I tend to change them throughout the season): Jannero’s Boneros

First of all, Phish blows. Hard.

Second, this is my first auction league…I’ve played fantasy basketball before, so I have a decent idea of what I’m doing. My handicap was that I had not prepared at all for this draft and I was nursing a sizeable hangover from the previous night’s shenanigans. Owing to both my lack of preparedness and lack of prep, I did not bring anything with me to the bar to write down how much I spent on everyone, so my recap will be a little bit different.

I had a couple goals in the draft: 1) get CP3 or Durant 2) get value after that. As Kmart stated, I set the market at $26 for Chris Paul. At this point, I could have auto drafted the rest of the day and been happy with my team. I think that was a decent value, especially considering Danny Granger went for $24 a few picks later (LeBron went for $23 before Granger…yeah, that’s not a typo. Danny Granger was more sought after than LeBron).

My next two picks were Chris Bosh ($15) and Carlos Boozer ($6). Let me say, I wasn’t in love with either player…I really like Bosh and felt $15 was a good price. Boozer was another story. The bid was at $5 and I just felt no one should get Boozer for only $5 so I bid $6 expecting to get outbid for $7…didn’t happen, so I got him. Not bad, not great. So into our first break, I had spent $47 on 3 players. The most of anyone…but at that time I also feel I had the best top 3 of anyone in the draft. I knew at this point I would be spending the full $65 to fill out my roster and was resigned to that fact.

My next three picks were Monta Ellis, Hedo Turkoglu and Andrew Bynum. I don’t remember how much I had spent on each. All I remember was that the Hedo pick was like the Boozer pick, good value…but I’m concerned about his production in Orlando. We’ll see how the season goes. I love Bynum this year and hope he stays healthy enough to stay in my lineup all season. Ellis should be solid as my other starting guard. I’m still feeling good at this point.

My last four picks were Boris Diaw, Mo Williams, Thaddeus Young, and Courtney Lee. Love Mo Williams as a backup guard/utility option. Diaw was a player I actually didn’t want that much, but felt he’d be a good bench option. Young and Lee were the last two $1 pickups of the draft, because I was the only team with money left and spots available. I have already dropped Lee for Lou Williams on the waiver wire because I think he’ll be solid and he has G/F eligibility (so add another $1 for the free agent pickup). $71 spent so far.

Tell me what you think, but I have Chris Paul so I don’t really care what anyone says.

Overall I’m happy with my starting lineup…especially Bosh, Boozer and Paul. We’ll see where the rest of the pieces fall. Here’s my projected starting lineup:

G- Chris Paul
G- Monta Ellis
F- Hedo
F- Boozer
C- Bosh
Util- Bynum/Mo Williams

Bench- Bynum/Mo Williams
Bench- Boris Diaw
Bench- Thaddeus Young
Bench- Lou Williams

NBA Player Rankings – Point Guard

These are subjective rankings, meaning that although I considered statistics, the final rankings are based on my personal thoughts and feelings on each player. I ranked each player based on the position they actually play for their team, and considered each players’ impact this year and going forward.

The things I considered in developing my rankings are: current skills/accomplishments, age, stage of career, future potential, and the players’ trade value within each position.

So would you trade CP3 for Andre Miller? No chance! But would you trade Gilbert for Chauncey? Tougher choice, right?

Here is my list of the top 15 PGs in the NBA -

1. Chris Paul
2. Deron Williams
3. Tony Parker
4. Derrick Rose
5. Chauncey Billups
6. Devin Harris
7. Gilbert Arenas
8. Steve Nash
9. Jason Kidd
10. Rajon Rondo
11. Baron Davis
12. Jameer Nelson
13. Mike Bibby
14. Jose Calderon
15. Russell Westbrook

Just missed the list: Monta Ellis, Andre Miller, Beno Udrih

Hard for me not to put D-Rose #2 behind CP3, but realistically I don’t think the Jazz or Spurs would give up their PG for D-Rose quite yet. D-Rose should make some improvements on D and with his J heading into this season, and it won’t be long before he is #2 (or even #1) on everybody’s PG list.

One of the toughest parts about this list was placing Nash and J-Kidd. Both were #1 at some point in the last few years, but have slipped (mainly at the defensive end). I still love both of them, but I think I have them ranked slightly too high. I think the younger guys that come after them on the list (Monta, Jose Calderon, and even Jameer) could probably be ranked ahead of them at this point, but nostalgia has me holding on.

If Agent Zero seems high, it’s because supposedly Gilbert is returning to form this year, so I am giving him the benefit of the doubt. Plus the Celtics willingness to trade Rondo after last season makes me think that he won’t ever be the great leader a team wants their PG to be.

Calderon might be too low, and Westbrook ahead of Monta was a tough call. It was tough to place a lot of these guys, but this is what I ended up with. So what do you think?


Click here for "NBA Player Rankings - Shooting Guard"

NBA Pre- Pre-Season Playoffs & Awards Predictions

With October just around the corner, the NBA is about to begin another pre-season. I could not be more excited (unless we actually had real NBA referees for pre-season ... then I would be slightly more excited). Either way, I am glad D-Rose, TT and Joa-Noah will be back in my life on a more consistent bases.

The greatest sport on earth begins the 2009-10 season in just a few weeks. Here are my predictions for The Association (*since pre-season is just getting under-way, I reserve the right to change these picks after I have seen some of these teams in action) ...

Western Conference Playoffs:

1. Lakers
2. Spurs
3. Blazers
4. Hornets
5. Nuggets
6. Mavs
7. Jazz
8. Thunder

Just miss playoffs: Clippers, Rockets, Suns

The Lakers basically swapping Artest for Ariza hurts them, but the Kobe/Pau combo should be enough to take them back to the #1 seed in the West. Jefferson and a healthy Manu really help the Spurs. The Blazers are ready to make a jump if B-Roy continues to produce and they can get anything out of Oden. The Hornets-Nuggets-Mavs-Jazz seem fairly interchangeable at this point, though I have to say Matrix makes the Mavs very interesting. I am going out on a limb with both the OKC Thunder in the playoffs and the Clippers just missing. It could be the other way around, but I love OKC (especially KD, as you will soon see). The Clippers have a good young core (Gordon and Griffin) and if the Mad Baron is healthy, they could compete or even sneak in.


Eastern Conference Playoffs:


1. Cavs
2. Magic
3. Celtics
4. Hawks
5. Wizards
6. Bulls
7. 76ers
8. Heat

Just miss playoffs: Pistons, Raps

Cavs should have a great regular season, but I predict we will Witness another choke in the playoffs. Not convinced the Magic will be the 2 seed because I don't think they create the same matchup problems with VC as they did with Hedo ... but who else can I put there? I don't think KG is healthy (plus I hate (HATE!) the Celtics!!) Hawks and Wizards are somewhat of a guess and I really wanted to peg the Bulls a bit higher, but the East has a bunch of really good teams ... and we are still coached by VDN. I could see the Hawks and Wizards slipping and the Bulls fighting for home-court in the first round. I could also see the Heat struggling and the Pistons in the playoffs, but haven't seen their new core together yet.


Conference Finals:

West: Lakers over Spurs

East: Magic over Hawks

No idea how the East will shake down in the playoffs, but I don't see both of last year's Finals teams making it back. I'll make that the pick for now, but I think that my pick will change after I see the pre-season.

NBA Champ:

Lakers

Artest put this on his shoulders, but I think it's Kobe and Pau leading the way back to the title.

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League leaders:

PPG: Kevin Durant (33.2)
I think this is a breakout year for KD - he's going to show everyone just what a special scorer he is. And he's going to do it in a humble, lovable manner! (Take that Lebron!)

APG: Chris Paul (12.1)
Best PG in the NBA.

RPG: Dwight Howard (12.9)
Nothing changes from last year.

BPG: Dwight Howard (2.75)
See previous comment.


Awards:

ROY: Johnny Flynn
I have him edging out Blake Griffin because he will have the ball in his hands a lot, and Minny might not be terrible with their young core. Putting up points on a decent team usually does the trick, so it's either Flynn or Griffin.

6th man: AI
Hard to pick this award at this point.

Most improved: Devin Harris
Has to shoulder a lot more of the offensive load with VC gone, so his numbers will jump.

DPOY: Dwight Howard
Blocks and rebounds should do it again, especially if the Magic are a dominant defensive team. Someone like D-Wade could sneak in with a lot of blocks and steals, but Superman did enough last year, so this award will remain his for another season.

MVP: Kevin Durant
That's right I said it. I think OKC sneaks into the playoffs behind Durantula's breakout season and he wins his first MVP award in the feel-good story of the year.


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Marc Stein's Pre-season power rankings -

13 (11) Bulls 41-41
With D-Rose no longer a rook, Deng back from injury, and Brad Miller and Salmons in training camp, Chicago will weather Ben Gordon's departure. Especially since the Bulls are a likely 2010 free-agent player, too.